Affordability a ‘formidable challenge’ as load shifts to tech, industrial customers: ICF

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ICF International's Vice President of Energy Markets, Maria Scheller, highlighted the significant challenge of maintaining affordable electricity for consumers amid declining generation capacity reserves and uncertain future load growth. As electricity demand shifts from residential and business consumers to technology and industrial customers, utilities face hesitation in making costly infrastructure investments due to policy uncertainties. This transition marks a return to the industrial-driven demand seen from the 1950s to the 1980s, with projections indicating that by 2035, nearly 40% of total U.S. load will have a flat, power-quality-sensitive profile.

ICF anticipates that capacity reserves will diminish across the U.S. due to near-term load growth, potentially falling below the target reserve margin by 2030. The organization warns that without a significant increase in new generation deployment, the country may face electricity shortages. Additionally, electricity prices could rise by as much as 25% in some regions by 2030 due to necessary infrastructure projects and gas price volatility. However, ICF suggests that utilities and regulators can mitigate some of these impacts through demand response programs and permitting reforms, which could help manage costs and facilitate new energy developments.