Meeting Summary - 06/28/24 Permian Basin Reliability Plan Study Workshop

1 - Antitrust Admonition - Robert Golen

2 - Miscellaneous Updates - ERCOT - Roberto Golen/Ying Li

• No miscellaneous updates were provided.

3 - ERCOT Status Update – Permian Basin Reliability Plan Study & Next Steps - ERCOT

Key Points:

• HB5066 requires ERCOT to develop a reliability plan for the Permian Basin region.
• The plan must extend transmission services, increase available capacity for forecasted load up to 2038, and reduce interconnection times.
• PUC project 55718 outlines the procedural process and timeline for the reliability plan.
• ERCOT has coordinated with TSPs and conducted monthly RPG meeting updates and status reports with the PUC.
• Earlier studies include the 2019 Delaware Basin Load Integration Study and the 2021 Permian Basin Load Interconnection Study.
• Steady-state reliability analysis identified necessary transmission upgrades and additional import paths to meet the projected load in the Permian Basin region.
• Load forecasts were created for 2030 and 2038 using the 2023 RTP cases, with substantial increases in both oil and gas, and non-oil and gas loads.
• Significant local and regional transmission upgrades are proposed, including new 345 kV substations, transformers, and double circuit lines.
• The total projected load for 2030 is 23.6 GW and for 2038 is 26.4 GW.
• Dynamic stability analysis of the 2038 case showed no dynamic stability issues with all transmission upgrades modeled.
• Cost estimates for transmission upgrades amount to $9 billion for 2030 and $13 billion for 2038, with higher costs for EHV (500 kV and 765 kV) options.

Next Steps:

• Complete the limited dynamic stability analysis.
• File the final report to PUC in July 2024.
• Present the final update in the July RPG meeting.

4 - Q/A & Stakeholder Feedback - Robert Golen

Q/A & Stakeholder Feedback - Robert Golen

Summary:

• Question: Nabaraj inquired about AI load in the model;

Answer confirmed to fall under data center load.

• Question: Clayton Greer questioned 765 kV single and double circuits; 

Answer: Discussion on a state-wide plan to meet load growth.

• Question: Bill Barnes (NRG) asked about reserve and generation assumptions outside of Permian Basin 

Answer: Details on additional generation added to meet transmission needs.

• Question: Chechnya Guo (Nextera) inquired about post-study scenario publication;

Answer: Study reports confirmed to be posted once finalized.

• Question: Wayman Smith inquired about bundle configuration for EHV options and solar conditions for the model.

Answer: No detail on bundle configuration yet, but it will be shared in the report. The study did not conduct a no solar case.

• Question: Eithar Nashawati (Oncor) asked about the process that identified the 500 kV double circuit; 

Answer: Confirmed consideration due to performance, but details and implementations remain to be explored.

• Question: Meghan Griffiths (PBPA) on cost estimation breakdown for 345 kV;

Answer: Discussed variability based on TSP projections.

• Question: Warren Lasher (TxOGA) asked if the 2030 case reliability would meet 2033 load growth

Answer: There is a way to meet the 2030 and 2038 load with the method presented. 

• Question: Liz Jones (Oncor) worried about delays from EHV discussions affecting immediate customer needs;

Answer: Local projects will address short-term needs whereas import paths cater to long-term growth.

• Megan Griffiths (TxOGA) suggested the 2038 load might arrive by 2033, stressing the need for an advanced timeline.

• Question: Pavan Varada asks if additional non oil and gas load is expecting zero growth, or if it’s excluded

Answer: The numbers the TSPs provided are applicable for both the 2030 and the 2038 case.

• Question: Yang asks once the reliability plan is approved by the PUC, will applications go through the RPG process

Answer: It wouldn’t have to go through the RPG process. 

• Question: Vincent questioned the accuracy of cost estimates; 

Answer: If the commission wants to proceed better cost estimates will be worked on with the TSPs.

5 - Adjourn